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凯文·凯利WAIC演讲核心观点

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未来5年AI三大核心赛道

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智能体经济生态

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个人智能体核心定位

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外延自我（Extended Self）

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全天候伴随用户，深度感知行为需求

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可内置在智能眼镜、手持终端等设备

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对用户的了解程度远超用户自身认知

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与用户高度共生，属于人类能力延伸载体

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智能体经济运行逻辑

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海量个人智能体互联互通形成生态

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智能体可自主对接任务、完成交易

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可自主建立跨主体信用体系

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赛道核心命题与机遇

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智能体归属权界定

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明确归研发企业所有还是用户所有

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跨智能体信任体系构建

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属于当前完全空白的技术领域

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需攻克不同智能体安全交互、可信协作难题

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人形机器人

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产品核心属性

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人类迄今最复杂的人造产物

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复杂度远超现有所有科技产品

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需全球顶尖人才协同攻坚实现落地

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三类核心技术高度集成

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搭载最复杂的人工智能系统

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融合精密硬件结构体系

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配套专属能源供给体系

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核心技术攻坚方向

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空间感知智能

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摆脱纯语言认知局限，适配三维真实场景

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需研发嵌入式现实世界模型，掌握物理规律

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高精度仿生柔性机械手

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需兼具压力、温度感知等类人手能力

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工程研发难度大，需多领域技术加持

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超低功耗能源技术

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对标人体300瓦、人脑25瓦的低功耗标准

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现有产品能耗效率远未达落地要求

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落地难点与周期

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极致可靠性要求99.999%

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当前自动化工厂准确率仅99%，提升壁垒极高

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剩余0.1%极端场景攻克成本等于此前99.9%总和

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成熟周期预判

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通用人形机器人全面成熟至少需十年

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工业、农业专用机器人技术已相对成熟

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AI情感能力

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能力定位与价值

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人机深度连接的核心纽带

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贴合人类认知尺度，无需复杂训练即可感知

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是未来AI产品的核心竞争力来源

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适配人机协同的大趋势

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未来AI角色为伙伴、教练、向导、副驾驶

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人类+AI协同效果远胜两者单独运作

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当前落地能力与未来方向

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当前已实现情绪识别反馈

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可通过摄像头识别开心、惊讶、恐惧等情绪

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已能实现情绪低落安抚等基础陪伴场景

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未来将实现深度情感交互

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可实现宠物拟人化沟通、情感互动等场景

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可与人类建立真实深刻的情感羁绊

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AI行业现存核心不确定性

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长期待解核心问题

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AI终极发展形态尚未定论

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行业格局走向集中或去中心化不明确

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AI是否会大规模取代人类就业无结论

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技术生态走向开放还是封闭仍待观察

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问题探索周期

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未来1-2年内无法得到明确答案

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5年后仍将处于持续探索阶段

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不确定性本身蕴藏巨大创新机遇

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AI对就业与产业的变革影响

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AI扩散节奏：渐进式渗透

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未来十年是人机相互适应关键阶段

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企业需重构工作流程、绩效体系、决策结构

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小型初创企业适配速度快于大型企业

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AI两类应用形态

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AI产品：企业生产销售AI相关产品服务

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AI内部应用：企业运营决策环节使用AI提效

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内部应用发展速度快于AI产品落地

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类似电力革命，将推动组织形态重构

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行业渗透优先级：知识密集领域先行

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软件开发、医药研发、教育、金融等领域率先渗透

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核心逻辑为“任务替代-工作重组”

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AI接管重复性任务，人类负责复杂高价值环节

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催生AI客服监督员、交互体验优化师等新岗位

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技术转型规律：三次试验法则

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第一次尝试成本高、失败率高

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第二次尝试成本降低但效果有限

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第三次尝试成本显著下降，应用走向成熟

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工作重组逻辑：任务消失，工作犹存

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AI接管规则明确、可重复的具体任务

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人类仍承担责任、判断、创造、人际互动职能

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理想协作模式为“人机协作团队”

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例如人类医生+AI医生、教师+AI助教组合

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人类核心不可替代性

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仅人类可承担决策与行为的相关责任

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人类具备AI目前没有的持续动态学习能力

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不会使用AI的人群将丧失职场竞争力

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新技术探索建议

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对新技术保持开放心态，反复尝试

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现阶段技术不完善是正常状态，需包容缺陷

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只有实际使用才能引导技术扬长避短发展

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海量思维导图模板，一键套用

凯文·凯利WAIC演讲核心观点